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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."